A win rate from a small number of trades can be misleading. This calculator turns your wins and losses into a win rate and shows a 95% range for the underlying rate, then compares it with the break-even rate at your payout. It uses only the figures you enter.
Win Rate Calculator
The 95% range uses the Wilson score interval and assumes independent trades. It shows how much a small sample can mislead. Use your own journal figures, not an estimate.
How to Use This Tool
- Enter the number of winning and losing trades from your journal.
- Enter your average stake and average payout.
- Check whether the break-even rate sits inside the 95% range. If it does, the sample cannot separate your results from break-even.
How It Works
The win rate is wins divided by total trades. The 95% range uses the Wilson score interval for a proportion, which behaves well with small samples. The break-even rate is 1 divided by (1 plus the payout as a decimal). A narrow range needs many trades, which is why the guide on sample size matters.
Limits
This tool uses only the figures you enter. It does not know your broker, your fees or your market, and its output is not advice or a prediction. Test any plan on a demo account first, and read your platform's own terms.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the 95% range mean?
It is a statistical estimate of where the true win rate may lie, assuming independent trades. It is not a guarantee.
How many trades do I need?
More trades narrow the range. Watch how it changes as you add results.
Should I use demo trades?
Demo results can differ from live trading, so label them clearly and be cautious about drawing conclusions.