Even a strategy that wins more often than it loses will produce losing runs. This calculator estimates how likely a run of a chosen length is within a chosen number of trades, and what that run would cost at your stake. It helps set expectations and loss limits in advance. It is not a forecast.
Losing Streak Risk Calculator
The streak probability is exact for independent trades with the win rate you enter. Real markets and real traders are not perfectly independent, so treat it as a guide to how often long losing runs can appear.
How to Use This Calculator
- Enter the win rate you want to test, the number of trades and the length of losing streak that worries you.
- Enter your stake and balance to see what that streak would cost.
- Compare the cost with the daily or weekly loss limit in your plan.
The Maths Behind It
For independent trades with loss probability q, the chance that a given set of k trades all lose is q to the power k. The chance of at least one run of k losses within n trades is computed exactly by stepping through the trades and tracking the current run length. Trades in real markets are not perfectly independent, so use the result as a guide.
Limits
This tool uses only the figures you enter. It does not know your broker, your fees or your market, and its output is not advice or a prediction. Test any strategy on a demo account first, and read your platform's own terms.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do long losing streaks happen with a good win rate?
Because outcomes are uncertain; over many trades, runs of losses appear by chance even when the average is favourable.
Does a streak make a win more likely next?
No. For independent trades each outcome has the same probability regardless of the previous result.
How can this help my plan?
It can show whether a stake size would put you near a loss limit after a plausible streak, so you can set the limit before trading.